Drug War EJKs: Cross-Checking Cayetano’s Murder, Homicide Stats

Senator Alan Peter Cayetano during the town hall hosted by CNN Philippines at UP Diliman on Feb. 18, 2016. Photo by Lito Ocampo.

CHEERS TO Rappler for spotting inaccuracies in Senator Alan Peter Cayetano’s graph showing a “drastic” drop in the number of murder and homicide cases recorded during the first month of President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration compared to the previous years. Rappler also pointed out inconsistencies between Cayetano’s data and that of the Philippine National Police (PNP).

To prove the that the administration’s war on drugs is working, Cayetano presented during the Aug. 22 Senate hearing on drug-related extrajudicial killings a graph comparing the murder and homicide rates in the country over the last six years with the rates since Duterte took office. On the average, according to Cayetano, only 20 were killed in one day when Duterte assumed the presidency compared to 30 from January to June 2016; 34 in 2015; 36 in 2014; 24 in 2013; 32 in 2012; 32 in 2011; and 30 in 2010.

Cayetano’s graph was statistically flawed. Rappler pointed out that the graph should cover the same time periods and that it is “incorrect to have statistics for two markers for the year 2016 – the first marker covering January to June of 2016, and the second covering July 1 to August 3 also of the same year – and then compare them to one marker covering a full year.” (“FACT CHECK: Cayetano’s line graph of murder, homicide,” Aug. 27, 2016).

Rappler also noted the discrepancy in Cayetano’s numbers (681 from July 1 to Aug. 3) with the numbers presented by the PNP on the second day of the hearing on Aug. 23 (1,468 from July 1 to Aug. 4).  In response, Cayetano said that the PNP number included deaths as the result of police operations (787 cases from July 1 to Aug. 4). If true, it appears that the Senator seemed to be dismissing the number of cases in which police officers were suspected to have killed a drug suspect. It may also be too early to compare the murder and homicide rates as the number of cases can still increase as the year progresses.

Twitter user @SagadaSun tagged CMFR regarding this report.