7.6 growth rate in 2022: Print trumpets superlative claims, TV and online news provide more realistic assessment

This Week in Media (January 23 to 27, 2023)

SEVEN MANILA-based broadsheets featured it as banner story on January 27, echoing the superlative terms used by government to describe the 7.6 percent growth of the country’s economy in in 2022.  It was noted as the highest rate recorded in 46 years; or as government further pointed out – since 1976 when the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 8.8 per cent. 

In a press briefing on January 26, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) announced that the figure surpassed the government’s target of 6.5 to 7.5 percent. In 2021, PSA data showed the 2021 GDP growth rate at 5.7 percent. 

NEDA Chief Arsenio Balisacan did explain that the growth was due to “pent-up demand,” also known as “revenge spending” prompted by the lifting of restrictions that were imposed due to the pandemic. For the last quarter of 2022 in particular, tourism, holiday spending and resumption of face-to-face classes all combined to contribute to the growth.

Malacañang was quick to claim credit. The Philippine Information Agency’s press release read, “PH posts highest GDP growth in 46 years as PBBM steers country toward recovery.” Daily Tribune, The Manila Times and Manila Bulletin picked up the statement of the Palace crediting the growth rate to the President’s “good economic stewardship” and his “calibrated policies and strategies,” without supplying detail.

The heads of both houses of Congress echoed the praise. Bulletin, Manila Standard and The Philippine Star carried the statement of House Speaker Martin Romualdez that the growth rate was due to the “able leadership” of President Marcos, who Romualdez said decided to reopen the economy despite the pandemic. Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri was cited in another Bulletin report saying the fast economic growth could not have been achieved “without the Marcos administration’s clear economic targets, and their strong push to sell the country as an investment hotspot.” Notably, there were no actual investments included in these statements.

BusinessMirror’s was the only banner story that included a caveat in its headline, “7.6 percent growth fastest, but incomes still low.” Reporter Cai Ordinario cited Balisacan’s own admission that even with the growing economy, the pre-pandemic per capita income level has not been recovered yet. Filomeno Sta. Ana, coordinator of the NGO Action for Economic Reform, told BusinessMirror that per capita incomes remain below the 2019 level because of the administration’s “policy biases” that have exacerbated the food crisis, including the creation of the Maharlika investment fund which does not address the affordability of goods. Leonardo Lanzona Jr., an Ateneo economics professor, told Ordinario that government programs for the economy must be more aggressive, and simply inviting foreign investors would not be effective unless the economy gains much better standing.

Agri, inflation discussed in TV reports

TV coverage went a different track, going light on the positive terms and focusing more on agricultural performance and inflation. The agriculture sector hardly contributed to the GDP with only a growth of 0.5 percent for 2022. This was especially emphasized by Lois Calderon in her report for CNN Philippines’ News Night, in which she said farmers and fisherfolk are getting left behind despite the promising figures on economic growth. Calderon interviewed farmers who said the rising prices of fertilizer and other supplies for farming meant they are earning less than what they spend. 

ABS-CBN’s TV Patrol and TV5’s Frontline Pilipinas both reported Balisacan’s admission that agricultural growth was slow, and his opinion that a full-time secretary must be appointed to quickly address the problem. Michael Ricafort, chief economist of the Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) agreed with this point in his interview with TV5. 

News Night included a clip of Balisacan recommending that the Department of Agriculture be more proactive in monitoring harvests to avoid unnecessary importation. Calderon noted that the low production and insufficient domestic supply have led to the rising prices of rice and other produce. In his TV Patrol report, Jekki Pascual correctly noted that while 2022 recorded a fast growth rate, the inflation rate for its last month was the highest in 14 years. Emmanuel Leyco, economist and president of Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Maynila, told ANC that ordinary citizens do not really feel the high GDP since the inflation rate is very high.

In her report for GMA-7’s 24 Oras, Mariz Umali highlighted the same point made by NEDA, that the GDP growth had little effect on the public because of inflation; and that NEDA admitted that pre-pandemic economic growth rates have not yet been achieved.

Online articles highlight 2023 outlook

Notably, the reports of Philstar.com and Rappler did not include the government’s description of the 2022 GDP growth rate as the fastest or highest. The two news outlets mentioned only that the government surpassed its target. 

Philstar.com cited economists who said that growth in 2023 will be more challenging due to the projected global recession. Both Philstar.com and Rappler referred to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ hiking of interest rates to tame inflation, which in turn could discourage consumer spending and deter business expansions and foreign investments.

In his analysis piece for Rappler, economist JC Punongbayan provided the necessary context in interpreting the recorded 2022 GDP growth rate. He explained that the growth rate was so high because the economy declined to such low levels during the pandemic. Recalling that lockdowns were still being implemented in 2021 with very little financial aid distributed, Punongbayan wrote, “We were coming from such a low base in 2021, so naturally any recovery in 2022 will register as a sizable growth rate.” He added that with people returning to normal activities, such base effects will disappear in 2023.      

Punongbayan also said addressing inflation must be the top priority for the Marcos administration if it wants to prop up economic growth through 2023. With current growth rate at 7.6 percent, he projected that the Philippines must register an annual 9.44 percent rate until 2028 if full economic recovery is to be achieved within the current administration.

Marcos had claimed in a January 23 media interview that he is losing sleep over inflation, which did not lead reporters to ask what he was going to do about it. But enough members of the press readily echoed the official spin that the President is responsible for economic growth. 

The NEDA chief has acknowledged the economic challenges that remain. As the lead agency on issues related to economic growth, NEDA’s position should be incorporated in PR statements made by the Palace.