Misplaced optimism about Omicron
THE FIRST week of 2022 saw the steady rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and the looming threat of the Omicron variant. Perhaps in an attempt to calm and comfort the public, some news reports carried a scientist’s claim that tried to look at the bright side.
Speaking at a Go Negosyo Town Hall meeting, priest and molecular biologist Nicanor Austriaco expressed his confidence that the Omicron variant might be the “beginning of the end” of the pandemic. Citing a preprint study in Hong Kong, Austriaco said the variant is a “natural vaccine.” His explanation: People who survive Omicron get antibodies that will protect them from other variants.
Austriaco, who was introduced as a fellow of OCTA Research, said that most Omicron cases could be expected to be mild, and that the rapid surge in cases would be followed by a rapid decline. He added, “Omicron is actually a blessing. It will be hard for one month but afterward, it should be a blessing because it will provide the population protection that we need everywhere.”
Austriaco did remind Filipinos, particularly the unvaccinated, to exercise caution. Setting aside the precaution, some netizens picked up the positive note, circulating some slides from his presentation on social media.
Omicron not a ‘blessing’
Initial reports from Inquirer.net, Manila Bulletin, and GMA News Online reported Austriaco’s commentary without adding much to the discussion.
But other media accounts quickly checked Austriaco’s optimism, drawing a broader perspective from views of health experts and data analysts whose views questioned Austriaco’s claims.
CMFR noted three main arguments and the sources cited by these news organizations.
Overwhelmed healthcare system, low vaccination rates
- Ed Lingao, News 5
News ExplainED
On January 6, the program examined Austriaco’s projections, checking the positive note by pointing out how the country’s poor healthcare system may be overwhelmed by the numerous cases caused by the quick spread of Omicron.
Ed Lingao further stressed the difference between the Omicron and Delta variants, and the difference between natural immunity and immunity obtained from vaccines. Using graphs, he contextualized the fast infection rate of the variant in other countries and the Philippines. He said that studies based on the experience of other countries also present more effective responses based on better healthcare systems. In the Philippines, previous surges had already shown up the inadequacy of the hospital systems.
- Edson Guido, ABS-CBN
TV Patrol
On January 5, Edson Guido, head of ABS-CBN Data Analytics team, noted that vaccination could result in milder cases. He pointed to the higher vaccination rates achieved in other countries; while the Philippine rate remains under 50% of the targeted population.
Guido also reminded the public in a Facebook video that in terms of case distribution in the country, “a small percentage (of severe cases) of a very big number (total cases) is still equivalent to a very big number.”
More mutations, more problems
On January 6, InterAksyon presented experts who brought up more issues related to Omicron and the mutation of viruses.
- Cherry Ronao, data scientist
Ronao highlighted how viruses can mutate, saying “the more people (who) get infected, the more the virus mutates, the more chances another variant of concern will emerge.” Highly transmissible, Omicron may yet cause the rise of still other variants.
- Dr. Tony Leachon, health reform advocate and former NTF against COVID-19 adviser
Leachon said that Omicron, despite its relative mildness, could still seriously danger vulnerable sectors such as the country’s unvaccinated population and those with weak immune systems.
- Harold Henrison Chiu, physician
Chiu said that the virus may have some “damage/effects on the different organs and some may even be long-term and yet to surface.” Chiu also reminded the public of “long Covid” that refers to individuals experiencing symptoms that continue for more than 12 weeks after infection and may result in mild to severe damages.
No proof of antibodies vs other variants
- Dr. Rontgene Solante, infectious disease specialist
CNN Philippines,
News Night
On January 6, News Night featured Solante who said there is no such thing as life-long protection for COVID-19 as yet; and there is no assurance for the Omicron variant to fight other variants.
- Dr. Anna Ong-Lim, Pediatric Infectious Diseases Expert and DOH Technical Advisory group member
Inquirer.net
On January 7, Lim stated the virus remains “unpredictable,” and that there is no definite proof yet that the Omicron variant can provide antibodies against other variants.
Who is Austriaco
In reporting on his statements, media accounts should have given more details about Austriaco.
First, Austriaco made his observations at a town hall meeting which was part of the ‘Let’s Go Bakuna’ campaign launched in April 2021 and led by Jose Maria “Joey” Concepcion III, Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship and founder of Go Negosyo. Austriaco was a regular guest, speaking at the Go Negosyo meetings in October, November, and December.
Austriaco also appeared at the President’s weekly “Talk to the People” on December 7 when President Duterte teased him about taking over from Health Secretary Francisco Duque III. Austriaco responded by saying that Duque has been doing a “fine job” despite reports of Duque mishandling pandemic funds and calls for the health secretary’s resignation.
This was also not the first time that Austriaco had taken a different position from that of OCTA Research. In an interview in March 2021, he said the AstraZeneca vaccine bought and distributed by the government were “sayang lang” (a waste) and may not be effective against the South African variant. Another fellow of OCTA Research Dr. Guido David clarified in an ANC interview that this was not the official position of the group.
Lastly, Austriaco, a visiting professor of the Biological Sciences Department of the University of Santo Tomas (UST), used slides in his Go Negosyo presentations with the UST name and school logo. But his position at UST was not mentioned.
Experts’ opinions are not equal. An expert cited in news reports should be independent, his or her statements free of political or partisan bias. Media should take care to check the credentials and backgrounds of resource persons they present as experts.
More so on issues of public health, journalists should always exercise extra caution in citing a singular source. Expert opinion should be carefully presented, as it may easily cause public panic or complacency.
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